Up South ★ Ski Forecast

What: After a storm moves out, cold, moist northwest wind runs into the wall of the Greens, gets forced up, and wrings out snow for 12 to 48 hours. The valleys see flurries or sun while the ridge gets buried. This is the Greens’ own snow.

The tell: Northwest wind at ridge level (from about 270° to 320°), 20 to 35 mph or more, air moist up to the ridgetop, and temperatures cold enough for fluffy flakes.

Who wins: The summits, nearly every time. Wind speed decides the rest. Moderate flow piles it on the west slope: Lincoln, South Lincoln, the Starksboro hills. Strong flow carries it over the spine to the Mad River side. Very light flow can back it up into the Champlain Valley. Bristol village usually gets the least.

Example: Dec 28, 2011. A dusting in Burlington, 11″ at North Underhill, and over 12″ at Lincoln. Lake Champlain added moisture on the way in. Very little made it east of the Greens.

Models: Coarse models miss it. In a 1999 NWS case a 40 km model showed no mountain snow at all. Expect the snow numbers on this page to run low in these setups.

What: Arctic air over the open Great Lakes builds snow bands. With strong, steady west-southwest wind a band can travel 200 to 300 km and reach Vermont, where the Greens squeeze out more.

The tell: West-southwest wind (about 250° to 260°) at 35 to 45 mph a mile up, the same direction top to bottom, early and mid winter while the lakes are still open.

Who wins: The west slopes of the Greens. The Champlain Valley mostly sits in the Adirondacks’ shadow. Down here it usually adds a few inches; the big hits go farther north, like Jay Peak.

Example: Feb 6, 2006. An Ontario band put down up to 4″ an hour and about a foot at Jay Peak. Lake Champlain makes its own lake effect too, rarely, with up to 13″ in 12 hours on record.

Models: They get the band’s position and strength wrong. A small shift in wind direction moves it entirely.

What: Low pressure strengthens off the Atlantic coast and throws moisture inland. Vermont is on the cold side.

The tell: The heaviest snow falls 100 to 250 miles northwest of the low’s track. A low crossing southeast Massachusetts is the classic big dump for Vermont. Too far inland and the valleys rain while the mountains snow. Too far out to sea and we get the fringe.

Who wins: East and southeast wind pours down the west face, which shadows Bristol and the Champlain Valley. The summits and the Mad River side do better. When the low pulls away the wind swings northwest and upslope adds a second round. The odd one out: north winds funneling down the Champlain Valley can make the valley the jackpot.

Examples: Valentine’s Day 2007, 20 to 30″ across central and northern Vermont. Pi Day 2017, 18 to 36″ statewide, 3 to 5″ an hour. Dec 16-17, 2022, valleys 4 to 10″ and high ground 12 to 20″, locally 2 feet, as southeast wind dried out the west slope. Jan 2, 2010, the north-wind exception: 33″ in Burlington in a day.

Models: A 50 to 100 mile wobble in the track moves the rain line and the shadows. Before the Jan 2026 storm the models ran too warm near the ground.

What: The low tracks west of Vermont, through the Great Lakes or up the St. Lawrence. South wind pumps in warm air: a burst of snow or ice up front, then rain, often all the way to the summits, then a hard freeze behind it.

The tell: A low headed for Toronto or Montreal, strong south wind aloft, and a layer above freezing a few thousand feet up.

Who loses: Everyone’s snowpack. The summits often get the most rain. Cold air hangs on in the valleys east of the Greens, which means freezing rain there while it rains up top.

Examples: Dec 23, 2022: 56° in Burlington, up to 2.75″ of rain on the east slopes, a 130 mph gust on Mansfield, then a flash freeze. Dec 28-29, 2025: the summits sat in the upper 30s and rained while the valleys glazed in the 20s, with over half an inch of ice east of the Greens.

Models: The National Blend ran warm at the surface in Dec 2025 and missed the shallow cold air, so the freezing rain lasted longer than forecast.

What: The first snow of a big system, as warm, moist air rides up and over cold air at the ground. It’s often the first few inches before a nor’easter, or the snow before a cutter flips to rain.

The tell: Southwest wind a couple of miles up and a warm front on the way. It usually starts in southern Vermont and spreads north.

Who wins: Fairly even across the area, with a modest boost at elevation. Southerly wind tends to shadow the Champlain Valley.

Example: Feb 14, 2007 opened with 2 to 6″ of this before the coastal storm took over.

Models: How deep the warm layer is decides snow vs sleet vs freezing rain, and that’s where they miss.

What: Quick, moisture-starved lows that drop out of western Canada. On their own they bring light snow. NWS notes the Champlain Valley gets plenty from clippers that come through the Mohawk Valley.

The payoff: The cold northwest wind behind the clipper’s front sets up upslope, and that’s when the Greens pull ahead.

What: A wall of heavy snow and wind along an arctic front. The median burst lasts about 17 minutes and leaves around an inch, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Small totals, but they cause whiteouts and pileups on 116, 17 and 100.

What: In fall and spring storms the snow line sits partway up the mountain. Oct 28-29, 2008: Mt Mansfield 12″, Burlington 0.3″. Check the freezing line on the Current Conditions map and the freezing level column in the 7-day table.